Capacity and flexibility · Field note
In the Irish and Northern Irish T-4 auction for 2029/30, ending a new-build award costs more the later it happens
In the all-island T-4 for 2029/2030, qualified new capacity was free not to offer, but an offer, once made, was firm, unconditional and irrevocable. A terminated new-build award is then charged €20,000 to €60,000 per MW, rising in steps towards the Capacity Year: an award terminated late costs more than one terminated early.
ListingMinds · Published and updated · Sources verified
Geography: Ireland, Northern Ireland · Procurement rounds covered: IE and NI SEM T-4 2029/30 (closed); IE and NI SEM T-4 2030/31 (not yet open)
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Only a quarter of the 1,194.471 MW of new capacity that qualified for the 2029/2030 T-4 capacity auction in Ireland and Northern Ireland went on to offer, the results report notes.1 Qualifying did not oblige it to: under the Capacity Market Code, a qualified unit must offer its existing capacity but may choose whether to offer its new capacity. Offering did bind it: an offer “is firm, unconditional and irrevocable”, priced per MW per year in the euro or sterling of the unit’s zone and applying for the whole duration offered “(without indexation)”.4, 5
A project awarded new capacity then had until the Performance Security Date, , to agree to the Implementation Plan in the results and post a performance security of at least the required level. The code requires that security to be kept until Substantial Completion, as “credit support for any Termination Charges”, and its rate rises in five steps from €20,000 to €60,000 per MW as the Capacity Year approaches. The charges themselves are set when an award is terminated or reduced: the termination fee rate applicable at that time, multiplied by the MW concerned. For this auction both rates are €20,000 per MW until 24 months before the Capacity Year, which begins on , and climb in steps to €60,000 from its start; for repowered or refurbished existing capacity, both are 0 €/MW. The rate a failing project pays therefore depends on the date its award is terminated, and the cover it keeps in place rises with that rate.3, 4
| Rate, € per MW of Awarded New Capacity | When it applies |
|---|---|
| 20,000 | From the auction’s completion to 24 months before the Capacity Year begins |
| 30,000 | From 24 to 18 months before the Capacity Year |
| 40,000 | From 18 to 13 months before the Capacity Year |
| 50,000 | From 13 months before the Capacity Year until it begins |
| 60,000 | From the start of the Capacity Year, whose first Trading Day begins on |
Source: the Final Auction Information Pack, rate tables and Capacity Year.3, 4
The mechanism has already been used, on an award for an earlier Capacity Year. That award, 6.825 MW of new capacity for Capacity Year 2028/2029, none of it delivered, was terminated after its participant acknowledged in an Implementation Progress Report that it did not expect to reach Minimum Completion by its long stop date of . The System Operators’ notice, published on , gives as the date the termination took effect and a rate of €20,000 per MW, for a charge of €136,500.10
The code allows for this. Minimum Completion requires, among other things, at least 50% of the capacity delivered, and if a participant acknowledges in an Implementation Progress Report that it does not expect to achieve Minimum Completion by the long stop date, the System Operators may, after consulting the Regulatory Authorities, terminate the whole award. For the 2029/2030 awards, the Final Auction Information Pack schedules ten such reports, from to ; the second is due on . For a project that knows it will not be built, that acknowledgement can bring the termination forward, and with it the rate that applies.3, 4
Two deadlines: financial completion, then delivery
The first deadline is financial. Substantial Financial Completion requires the major contracts and finance documents to be in force, with their conditions precedent met or waived, and the resources or committed financing for the total project spend. It also requires the directors’ approval to complete the works and “all necessary consents, licences, authorisations and permits”, planning consents included; demand side units and aggregated generator units meet a modified test.4 For the 2029/2030 T-4 it is due within 18 months of the results, by , and unless a later date has been allowed under the code’s extension rules, the System Operators must terminate all the new capacity awarded to a unit that misses it.3, 4
The second is physical: Minimum Completion by the long stop date, for one-year awards, for two- to five-year awards and for six- to ten-year awards; new capacity that misses it is terminated, unless a later date applies under the code.3, 4
By our count, the two deadlines fall on different steps of that scale: lies between 24 and 18 months before the Capacity Year, at €30,000 per MW, and every long stop date lies after the Capacity Year has begun, at €60,000.
Worked exampleTermination charge on a new award in the 2029/2030 T-4, at two termination datesIn this example, a 20 MW one-year new award terminated just after missing the last date for Substantial Financial Completion is charged EUR 600,000; terminated after missing its long stop date, it is charged EUR 1,200,000, twice as much. These are termination charges, not capacity payments.Show the calculationHide the calculation
| Termination fee rate from 24 to 18 months before the Capacity Year, per MW | EUR 30,0003 |
|---|---|
| Termination fee rate from the start of the Capacity Year, per MW | EUR 60,0003 |
| Substantial Financial Completion Period, from the results | 18 months3, 4 |
| Awarded New Capacity, one-year award | 20 MW |
|---|
| Step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Case 1: the last date for Substantial Financial Completion, , counted back from the Capacity Year’s first Trading Day | about 23 months before, so in the band from 24 to 18 months | EUR 30,000 |
| Case 1: termination charge | 20 MW × EUR 30,000 | EUR 600,000 |
| Case 2: Minimum Completion missed by the one-year long stop date, , after the Capacity Year has begun | 20 MW × EUR 60,000 | EUR 1,200,000 |
| Case 2 against case 1 | EUR 1,200,000 ÷ EUR 600,000 | 2× |
Result. In this example, a 20 MW one-year new award terminated just after missing the last date for Substantial Financial Completion is charged EUR 600,000; terminated after missing its long stop date, it is charged EUR 1,200,000, twice as much. These are termination charges, not capacity payments.
Since , financial completion also divides two kinds of failure: a participant whose award is terminated after Substantial Financial Completion may not apply to qualify the same capacity for the two T-1 auctions held in the two years that follow, while termination before it does not bar applying again for a later Capacity Year.6, 7
What the auction bought, and how it paid
The auction ran on , after the offer window opened on , and its final results, approved by the Regulatory Authorities, were published on .1, 2 It awarded 3,862.323 MW of derated capacity to 113 Capacity Market Units, 206.035 MW of it new, at an Auction Clearing Price of €135,499.99 per MW per year for participants in Ireland, or £125,337.49 for participants in Northern Ireland.1, 3
| Technology | Qualified | Offered | Awarded | Where the awarded new capacity is |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand side units | 549.419 | 161.26 | 111.5 | Northern Ireland and Ireland outside Greater Dublin; none in Greater Dublin |
| Gas turbines | 433.418 | 98.027 | 68.027 | All three areas, and all the new capacity awarded in Greater Dublin |
| Storage | 210.663 | 42.514 | 25.594 | Northern Ireland and Ireland outside Greater Dublin; none in Greater Dublin |
| All new capacity, including wind | 1,194.471 | 302.715 | 206.035 | All three areas |
Source: the final results report, its tables of new capacity by technology and by area, which label storage Battery Storage and Other Storage.1, 5
Under the code, capacity cleared at an offer price at or below the clearing price is paid the clearing price, and capacity cleared at a higher offer price is paid its own offer.4 In this auction, the independent auction monitor reports, the capacity scheduled at the clearing price did not meet the locational required quantities, so further offers were cleared out of merit “at their respective offer prices up to the Auction Price Cap of €230,000/MW per year”.5 Counting that additional locational capacity, the results report puts the average price of awarded capacity at €151,034.71 (£139,717.59) per MW per year.1
The premium was open only to one-year offers and to units the Regulatory Authorities had exempted: an offer priced above the clearing price for more than one Capacity Year is otherwise cleared to zero.4 The required quantity for the Ireland area was met in the end; those for Northern Ireland and Greater Dublin were not, although every unit offered in those two areas was awarded. Where the capacity at the clearing price could not meet an area’s required quantity, a one-year offer above the clearing price could still clear and be paid as offered, up to the cap.1, 5
| Locational area | Required quantity | Awarded in earlier auctions | Cleared in this auction | Total awarded | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 2,203.000 | 762.343 | 1,408.101 | 2,170.444 | Not met, 32.556 MW short; every unit offered in the area was awarded |
| Ireland, including Greater Dublin | 7,361.000 | 4,906.778 | 2,454.222 | 7,361.000 | Met |
| Greater Dublin | 2,426.000 | 1,918.713 | 464.195 | 2,382.908 | Not met, 43.092 MW short; every unit offered in the area was awarded |
Source: the independent auction monitor’s report; the final results report.1, 5
Stricter qualification, for later auctions
From , after qualification for the T-1 2027/28 auction, new capacity will qualify only with an electricity connection offer or agreement and planning permission granted, with the statutory window for challenge or appeal completed and no challenge under way, under a SEM Committee decision of . Units connecting to the gas transmission system to generate with gas will also need a gas connection offer or agreement.8, 9
Not all of that is new, the decision notes: the code’s qualification data already ask for the electricity connection offer or agreement. In Ireland, conventional generation other than RED III projects already, in effect, needs valid planning permission to be eligible for a connection offer; in Northern Ireland, a successful applicant must show evidence of planning permission within 90 days of a connection offer for the offer to be valid. For demand side units, which are often located on exempted development, the decision paper considers it reasonable for evidence of a planning exemption to suffice, where relevant, and says the legal drafting reflects this; the approved drafting’s planning test refers only to planning permission granted.8, 9
The 2030/2031 T-4: the same rates, on later steps for the charge
The Initial Auction Information Pack for the 2030/2031 T-4, of , gives the same €20,000 to €60,000 per MW for the security and the termination charge as the 2029/2030 auction, listed as final in its change table, but on different steps: the security rises at 24, 18, 13 and 2 months before the Capacity Year, the termination charge at 22, 16 and 11 months before it and at its start. In the 2029/2030 auction, the two followed the same steps. In the 2030/2031 pack, the cover a project posts rises ahead of the charge it covers.3, 4, 12
| Rate, € per MW | Performance security applies | Termination charge applies |
|---|---|---|
| 20,000 | From the auction’s completion to 24 months before the Capacity Year | From the auction’s completion to 22 months before the Capacity Year |
| 30,000 | From 24 to 18 months before | From 22 to 16 months before |
| 40,000 | From 18 to 13 months before | From 16 to 11 months before |
| 50,000 | From 13 to 2 months before | From 11 months before until the Capacity Year begins |
| 60,000 | From 2 months before the Capacity Year | From the start of the Capacity Year |
Source: the Initial Auction Information Pack for the 2030/2031 T-4, security and termination charge tables.12
The Substantial Financial Completion Period is again 18 months, but where the 2029/2030 auction set separate long stop dates for two- to five-year and six- to ten-year awards, the initial pack sets one, , for awards longer than a year, and for one-year awards, with a long stop date of its own for refurbished capacity. The pack says its contents may still be amended in the Final Auction Information Pack.3, 4, 12
As of , the System Operators’ timetable for that auction gives for the provisional qualification results, for the final ones and the Final Auction Information Pack, and for the auction, with offers accepted from ; its closing date for applications to qualify was . The code’s new qualification tests therefore do not apply to it: on that timetable, its qualification, from the provisional results to the final ones, is settled before .11, 13
How derating, contract length and payback compare across other capacity markets is set out in the field note One battery, three capacity markets: how much of it counts and in the capacity and flexibility guide.
Sources (13)
- 1
EirGrid and SONI (System Operators): 2029/2030 T-4 Capacity Auction, Final Capacity Auction Results Report FCAR2930T-4, Version 1, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Printed page = PDF page. P. 4, executive summary: the auction took place on ; the €583 million (£539 million) sentence, with no period or method given; “Only a quarter of 1194.471 MW of qualified new capacity units … elected to submit an offer”; the Ireland locational requirement satisfied, Northern Ireland and Dublin not, “all units offered in this auction were awarded” in Northern Ireland and Greater Dublin; results final and approved under F.9.3. P. 5, Table 1: Auction Clearing Price € 135,499.99 and £ 125,337.49 per MW per year; Total Awarded Capacity 3,862.323 MW; 113 Capacity Market Units allocated Awarded Capacity. P. 6: MW are megawatts of derated capacity. P. 9, Table 3: Successful New 206.035 MW. P. 10, Table 5: new capacity qualified, offered and successful by technology class (Demand Side Unit 549.419 / 161.26 / 111.5; Gas Turbine 433.418 / 98.027 / 68.027; Battery Storage 210.663 / 42.514 / 25.594; Total 1194.471 / 302.715 / 206.035); Table 7: new capacity by locational area and technology class. P. 12, §4.2: the locational outcome. Read side by side, not used: Table 2 (p. 7) gives new wind qualified as 0.971 MW and Table 5 as 43.904 MW (the existing plus new total of Table 4); Table 2 gives new gas turbine qualified as 433.418 MW and Figure 2 (p. 8) as 415.754 MW; the page quotes neither wind figure, takes Table 5 for gas, and gives Table 5’s total. Table 3 calls new storage “Battery Storage”, Table 7 “Other Storage” (both 25.594 MW). Later documents checked, not cited: SEMO’s final results notice of states no change from the provisional results communicated on ; the provisional report PCAR2930T-4 of gives the same figures. P. 4: the average price of Awarded Capacity, €151,034.71 (£139,717.59) per MW per year, considering the additional capacity awarded to satisfy Locational Capacity Constraints (also p. 5).
- 2
EirGrid and SONI: Capacity Auction Timetable for the 2029/2030 T-4 Capacity Auction, CAT2930T-4, Version 1.1, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Table 1 (p. 3): A.11 Capacity Auction Submission Commencement 19/03/2026; A.12 Capacity Auction Submission End 26/03/2026 10:00; A.13 Capacity Auction Run Start 26/03/2026 12:00; A.16 Capacity Auction Approval Date and A.17 Capacity Auction Results Date 05/05/2026. Amendment checked: CAT2930T-4 Version 1.1 is the cited version; it replaced Version 1.0 of , updating only events A.7 to A.10, now 05/03/2026.
- 3
EirGrid and SONI: Final Auction Information Pack for the 2029/2030 T-4 Capacity Auction, FAIP2930T-4, Version 1.0, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Printed page = PDF page. §1.1 (p. 4): Capacity Year 2029/2030 starts at the start of the Trading Day beginning at 23:00 on (used in the rates table). §1.2 (p. 4): MW are derated MW; euro values apply to participants located in Ireland and sterling values to participants located in Northern Ireland; the auction is conducted in euro. §2.5, Table 6 (p. 8), event 19: Performance Security Date 17/06/2026. §2.13, Table 12 (p. 10): performance security rates by date or event (20,000; 30,000; 40,000; 50,000; 60,000 €/MW); p. 11: 0 €/MW for New Capacity that is repowered or refurbished capacity based on previous Existing Capacity. §2.14, Table 13 (p. 11): termination charge rates, the same steps. §3.2, Table 158 (pp. 13–14): Substantial Financial Completion Period 18 months; last date . §3.3, the long stop date table printed “Table 169” (p. 14): , and by award duration. Version 1.0 is the only version listed on SEMO’s capacity market page when retrieved; it confirms the Initial Auction Information Pack’s values or replaces its indicative ones (Table 20, p. 15), and confirms CMC_07_24 applied in this auction (§2.4.3, pp. 7–8). §3.1, Table 17 (p. 13): Implementation Progress Reports 1 to 10, 17/06/2026 to 16/12/2030 (Report 2, 17/12/2026).
- 4
SEMO (EirGrid and SONI): Capacity Market Code, Version 15.0, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Clause numbers are the Word file’s automatic numbering, restored and checked against clauses quoted in the information packs. D.2.1.3A (18 months). F.2.1.1(a) and (b) (must offer existing, may offer new). F.7.1.1(a) and (b), F.7.1.4 (offer format; without indexation; firm, unconditional and irrevocable). F.8.3.3, F.8.3.5 (Price Setting Offer and Auction Clearing Price). F.8.4.3, F.8.4.3A (multi-year offers above the clearing price cleared to zero unless exempted). F.9.1.1(a)(ii) (Capacity Payment Price). F.9.4.5 (agreement to the Implementation Plan and Performance Security by the Performance Security Date). J.2.1.1(a), J.2.1.3(a) (Substantial Financial Completion; the modified test for Aggregated Generator Units and Demand Side Units). J.3.2.2, J.3.2.4, J.3.2.6 (purpose, Required Level, held until Substantial Completion). J.5.2.1, J.5.2.5 (extension of the Substantial Financial Completion date). J.6.1.1(a) and (b), J.6.1.2(a) and (b) (Minimum Completion, Long Stop Date, termination). J.7.1.1(a), J.7.1.3 (Termination Charge). Amendments checked: CMC_07_24 (effective ) and CMC_17_25 (effective ) took effect before the auction of and are in this version; the other changes in Version 15.0 ( and ) concern secondary trading in section M, not cited, so the cited clauses read as at the auction. CMC_22_25 (effective ) replaces J.6.1.10 and is not yet in this file; it is cited from its decision and approved drafting. CMC_08_25 (effective ) adds E.7.5.1(e) to (h) and is not in this file; it is cited from its decision and approved drafting. SEMO’s market rules page names Version 15.0 as the current version. J.6.1.3(f) and J.6.1.5 (termination of all Awarded New Capacity, after consulting the Regulatory Authorities, on the participant’s acknowledgement in an Implementation Progress Report).
- 5
Independent Auction Monitor for the Regulatory Authorities (CRU and UREGNI): 2029/2030 T-4 Capacity Auction, Independent Auction Monitor’s Report (redacted), · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Printed page = PDF page. §3 (p. 8): 78 qualified units with a Firm Offer Requirement of only New Capacity “were not required to submit an offer” under CMC F.2.1.1. Table 3.2 (p. 8): required and maximum quantities (Northern Ireland 2,203 / 20,000; Ireland 7,361 / 20,000; Greater Dublin 2,426 / 2,426). §3 (pp. 8–9): the capacity scheduled at the Auction Clearing Price did not meet the LCC Required Quantities, so further offers cleared out of merit “at their respective offer prices up to the Auction Price Cap of €230,000/MW per year”. Table 3.3 (p. 9): previously awarded capacity, capacity cleared, total awarded, required quantity and shortfall for each area. Published redacted under CMC B.10.4.2, with SEMO’s final results notice of ; counts of offers and units are redacted. The results report (S-195, p. 6) names the Ireland area “Ireland (excluding Greater Dublin)”; this report’s Table 3.3 counts Greater Dublin within Ireland, as the area table on the page does.
- 6
SEM Committee: Capacity Market Code Modifications Workshop 47, Decision Paper SEM-26-055 (CMC_22_25, termination and re-entry), · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Summary of Key Decisions (p. 2): CMC_22_25, “Make a Modification”, implementation “Effective on publication”; §2.1.2 (p. 6): J.6.1.10 split into termination before and after Substantial Financial Completion; §2.3.6 (p. 10): the SEM Committee’s view that the change “does not amend or alter the terms of existing contracts” (not quoted on the page).
- 7
SEM Committee: SEM-26-055 Appendix B, Approved Modification Text Drafting for CMC_22_25 (termination and re-entry), · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
P. 2: J.6.1.10(a) (termination before Substantial Financial Completion does not preclude an application for a later Capacity Year) and (b) (after it, no application for the same capacity for two T-1 Capacity Auctions held in the two years following termination); J.6.1.10A (same capacity); J.6.1.10B; new E.2.1.7 and E.7.2.4.
- 8
SEM Committee: Decision Paper SEM-26-063, CMC_08_25 (qualification criteria in the Capacity Market), · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
The file is named “Decision Letter”; the document is the Decision Paper. Summary of Key Decisions (p. 2): CMC_08_25, “Make a Modification”, implementation date 01/07/27. §2.3.10 (p. 12): effective from , “post qualification for the T-1 2027/28 Capacity Auction”. §2.3.5 and §2.3.7 (p. 11): the connection requirement already in Appendix D; the planning requirement for connection offers in Ireland and Northern Ireland. §2.3.13 (p. 12): planning-exemption evidence for DSUs (X-020).
- 9
SEM Committee: SEM-26-063 Appendix A, Approved Modification Text Drafting for CMC_08_25, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
P. 2: E.7.5.1(e) and (f) (connection agreement or offer from the relevant Transmission System Operator or Distribution System Operator; for Aggregated Generator Units and Demand Side Units, for their Generators and Demand Sites), (g) (planning permission granted, the statutory window for challenge or appeal completed, not undergoing challenge) and (h) (for New Capacity connecting to the gas transmission system to generate with gas, a gas connection offer or agreement). P. 3: Appendix D items (h) and (i), added beside the existing item (g), the copies to be provided. No exemption wording in E.7.5.1(g) or Appendix D item (h) (X-020).
- 10
EirGrid and SONI (System Operators): Capacity Market Termination Notice, GU_407490, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
One page. The notice table: Capacity Year(s) 2028/2029; Long Stop Date 31/03/2030; Awarded New Capacity delivered 0 MW; Awarded New Capacity terminated 6.825 MW; Effective Date of the termination 30/06/2026; Termination Fee Rate €20,000; Termination Charge €136,500. The paragraphs below it: the participant’s acknowledgement under J.6.1.3 (f), the consultation under J.6.1.5, the notice under J.6.1.7 and J.6.1.8. Published on SEMO’s site with the market message “Termination Notice Publication - GU_407490” of .
- 11
EirGrid and SONI: Capacity Auction Timetable for the 2030/2031 T-4 Capacity Auction, CAT3031T-4, Version 1.0, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Printed page = PDF page. Revision table (p. 2): 1.0, 02/06/2026. Table 1 (p. 3): A.4 Qualification Application Closing Date 24/08/2026; A.5 Provisional Qualification Results Date 04/11/2026; A.7, A.8, A.9 and A.10 03/03/2027; A.11 Capacity Auction Submission Commencement 18/03/2027; A.12 Capacity Auction Submission End 25/03/2027 10:00; A.13 Capacity Auction Run Start 25/03/2027 12:00; A.17 Capacity Auction Results Date 30/04/2027; A.18 Performance Security Date 28/05/2027. Version 1.0 is the one SEMO’s Capacity Market and Capacity Auction Timetable pages link on .
- 12
EirGrid and SONI: Initial Auction Information Pack for the 2030/2031 T-4 Capacity Auction, IAIP3031T-4, Version 1.0, · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Printed page = PDF page. §1.1 (p. 4): the pack may be amended in the Final Auction Information Pack. §2.13, Table 20 (p. 13): performance security dates / events and rates; refurbishing capacity 0 €/MW. §2.14, Table 21 (p. 14): termination charge rates; refurbishing capacity 0 €/MW. §2.21, Table 27 (p. 18): Substantial Financial Completion Period 18 months. §2.22, Table 28 (p. 19): Long Stop Dates 31st October 2030 (one year) and 31st March 2032 (greater than one year). Table 30 (p. 20): Performance Securities and Termination Charge Rates “Final” at IAIP and FAIP.
- 13
SEMO: Capacity Market page (auction list) · Tier 1 · official · Verified
Where in the document
Section “Join the market”, the auction table (Auction Name, Auction Date): 2027/2028 T-1 24/06/2027 (CAT2728T-1); 2030/2031 T-4 25/03/2027 (CAT3031T-4 and IAIP3031T-4, linked at the addresses of S-411 and S-412); 2029/2030 T-4 26/03/2026 (FCAR2930T-4, FAIP2930T-4, IAIP2930T-4, CAT2930T-4, at the addresses of S-195, S-197 and S-196). The page shows no date; read on .
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ListingMinds, “In the Irish and Northern Irish T-4 auction for 2029/30, ending a new-build award costs more the later it happens”, . https://www.listingminds.com/energy/field-notes/ireland-sem-t-4-capacity-auction-2029-30